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Darrera modificació: 2023-09-04
Bases de dades: Sciència.cat
Vlach, Marek, "The Antonine Plague: A Case Study of Epidemiological Modelling and Impact Evaluation", dins: Brughmans, Tom - Wilson, Andrew (eds.), Simulating Roman Economies: Theories, Methods and Computational Models, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2022, pp. 69-108.
- Resum
- Since the beginning of discussions about the ‘third-century crisis', the famous epidemic called the Antonine Plague has often been argued to be a key causal factor. During the crisis period, different segments and regions of the Roman world underwent various forms of turmoil (social unrest and uprising, economic problems, political instability, etc.) or external incursions (warfare, barbarian raids). Our current knowledge of the period suggests considerable ranges of the estimated death toll of the epidemic. The main intention of this chapter is to test the plausibility of these different estimated impacts on the basis of emulative digital modelling and simulation. A geographically explicit context, with a cellular framework, represents a workspace for spatio-temporal quantitative simulations to test various scenarios. Model input data include a reconstructed distribution of population density, infrastructural density, historical clinical data on the disease, and other factors. The vital part of simulation dynamics is defined through epidemiology mathematics (a compartment model with dynamics driven by differential equations). Coping with a large array of input variables, which are known only to a limited extent, has constrained our ability to test scenarios for assessing possible quantitative and spatial aspects of the epidemic impact within the demographic structures of the Roman Empire. Nevertheless, on the basis of simulation results it was possible to put the general plausibility of some existing estimates into a new perspective.
- Matèries
- Medicina - Pesta i altres malalties
Història de la medicina
- URL
- https://academic.oup.com/book/44160/chapter-abstrac ...
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